CNN
—
U.S. job growth was much weaker than originally expected for most of last year, according to new data released Wednesday.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary annual benchmark review of employment data shows that there were 818,000 fewer jobs in March of this year than originally reported.
Each year, the BLS revises data from its monthly business payroll survey and then compares March employment figures with those from the quarterly Employment and Wage Census program.
The preliminary data represent the largest downward revision since 2009 and show that the labor market was not quite as hot as initially thought. However, employment growth was still historically strong.
An analysis of BLS data shows that the average monthly employment gain from April 2023 to March 2024 was 173,500 compared to nearly 242,000 a year earlier.
“It’s important for markets to remember that these are not job losses, but that jobs have simply never been this high,” wrote Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds, in a note on Wednesday. “The economy apparently did not need this phantom workforce, as robust real consumer spending drove very strong growth in the second half of last year.”
The downward revisions were limited to the private sector. Almost half of these were in the professional and business services sector (downwardly revised by 358,000 or 1.6 percent). Other sectors with large negative fluctuations were the information industry (minus 68,000 or 2.3 percent), leisure and hospitality (minus 150,000 or 0.9 percent) and manufacturing (minus 115,000 or -0.9 percent).
The estimates published by the Ministry of Labour on Wednesday – with an atypical delay of more than half an hour – are preliminary and will not be finalised until February 2025.
While Wednesday’s revision will not change the existing monthly employment data for now, it serves as another important indicator of the overall health and activity of the U.S. labor market. Employment growth has fallen more than expected in recent months, making the situation even more delicate for the Federal Reserve and its considerations of interest rate cuts.
This story is evolving and will be updated.
