Recently, the league’s website had Tampa Bay Lightning Day. Like every team in the league, they dedicated the day to topics such as:
NHL Edge Stats for the Lightning
Fantasy Projections for Tampa Bay Lightning
Top talents for the Tampa Bay Lightning
An insight into the Tampa Bay Lightning
The last post was her popular post “3 Questions for the Tampa Bay Lightning.”
Since we’re in the last week of August, we thought it would be a good thought exercise to answer the questions ourselves. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments. Consider this the first of several season preview posts that will be popping up over the next month or so. Hockey day is upon us, folks!
Question No. 1
Are the Lightning still a contender for the Stanley Cup?
The answer is yes. Are they a favorite to win the Stanley Cup? The answer is no. All a team needs to win the Stanley Cup is a spot at the table. In this case, the table is the playoffs, and despite all the departures over the last few seasons, the Bolts are still a playoff team. They may be a borderline playoff team, but chances are they will find a way to the postseason (for you gambling fans, Hard Rock Bet has them making the playoffs at -230).
As for who the favorites are, let’s not kid ourselves. It’s going to be a tough battle to get to the Eastern Conference Finals this year. The Atlantic Division will be tough this year. Florida, Toronto and Boston have all suffered crushing losses (though the Bruins’ new goaltending duo could be a step back). Buffalo is knocking on the playoff door for the fourth year in a row. Ottawa, Detroit and Montreal may not be ready for primetime, but they won’t be easily steamrolled either. Breaking the 95+ point mark that seems to be the cutoff for the postseason will be tough for the Bolts.
Still, they have the offensive firepower to overcome some of the other issues they may face. Andrei Vasilevskiy is coming back after spending all summer rehabbing his back, and Nikita Kucherov may be playing with a little grudge. Jake Guentzel brings a long history of offensive production, and swapping Mikhail Sergachev for Ryan McDonagh on the second pair should, in theory, bolster the defense.
Question No. 2
Will they be better defensively?
They should. That’s the million-dollar question for the Lightning this season (and the $500,000 question is: Can they improve their 5-on-5 scoring rate?). They need to allow fewer goals this season. That’s it, that’s the headline.
As the graph shows, the number of goals against has steadily increased since the 2020-21 season (also known as the second Cup year), both overall and at 5v5. Even more than the offense, the defense has been affected by the talent loss caused by success. Try as he might, Julien BriseBois can’t seem to stop the flow of pucks into the Lightning’s net.
The switch to a more forechecking-oriented team last season didn’t seem to pay off, especially since that style of play isn’t exactly what their top forwards like to play. Aside from the trade of Guentzel for Stamkos, there were no major changes in the forward line. Tyler Motte is out and Zemgus Girgensons is in. Offensive player Anthony Duclair has also left the team and an unknown quantity has joined the team in Cam Atkinson.
On defense, Ryan McDonagh and Mikhail Sergachev are more prominent, and JJ Moser is the third team to take the field in rotation last season. Moser could help make up for the loss of some of the offensive players Sergachev put together, while Mr. BriseBois and Coach Cooper hope that reuniting McDonagh and Erik Cernak will give them the strong duo they’ve been missing since the Mack Truck was traded to Nashville.
Even though the Lightning are undermanned, they should still be one of the top teams in the league. They have plenty of forwards they can use and their key defensive pairings are still there, with McDonagh theoretically giving them a boost.
A full season with Andrei Vasilevskiy between the posts shouldn’t hurt either. Jonas Johansson has done an excellent job after being thrust into the starting lineup early in the season, but he’s no Vasy. Even Vasy wasn’t Vasy for parts of last season, but seemed to get back into his old rhythm over time. Now that he’s had a full offseason (hopefully without any injuries in the gym), he should reclaim his place among the league’s elite players. The Bolts don’t need him to be their best, but if he puts together a top-10 season, they should see a significant reduction in their goals-against average.
If they can get back under 3.00 GA/60, they should have the offense to remain competitive in the Eastern Conference. Of the 12 teams that scored under 3.00 goals against last season, only the Buffalo Sabres failed to make the playoffs. One may be the loneliest number, but three seems to be the magic number for success in the NHL.
Question No. 3
What changes in the power play?
The good news is that three of the four key players on the league’s best power play are still on the team. Victor Hedman is still there to swing the puck from side to side, Nikita Kucherov is still on the half boards making the magic happen, and Brayden Point is still in the slot firing dangerous shots at will.
While they flirted with Anthony Cirelli and Nick Paul down below, the big hole in the top unit will be Steven Stamkos’ one-shot from the left circle. The threat of that shot has always split the defense, giving Point and Hedman space to operate in the middle while Kucherov gets passing options. Things will change when Stamkos isn’t pounding the puck out of his office.
Guentzel is the most likely replacement for him on the top unit, but he’s not a one-timer guy. His role is more akin to that of Paul or Cirelli, deflecting pucks down low or sinking rebounds. The Bolts really don’t have a one-timer solution that even comes close to Stamkos, so whoever takes that spot will likely play a little closer to the blue line.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Bolts play more of a box-and-one style with two players at the blue line. Kucherov could fill that role, his wrist shot is deceptive enough to score from that distance, and he can still set up Point and Guentzel deep.
There will be a lot of tinkering with the power play in training camp and there could be numerous changes in the units during training and preparation games.