The number of power conferences in college football has officially dropped from five to four at the start of the 2024 season after the last round of realignment resulted in the end of the Pac-12, a conference that has existed in some form since 1915.
Big questions hang in the remaining power leagues as the 2024 season marks the beginning of a new era in the sport. High-profile leagues like Texas (to the SEC) and USC (to the Big Ten) have left their traditional home leagues and headed to the richest and most powerful conferences to earn higher revenues and find a clearer path to the College Football Playoff, which expanded from four to 12 teams this season.
As the 2024 season begins, there is a burning question for every power conference.
ACC: Which team will surprise us?
October 7, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal enters the court during the second half against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Photo Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports ORG XMIT: IMAGN-712196 ORIG FILE ID: 20231007_jfv_bv1_076.jpg
While the ACC has yet to suffer the same fate as the Pac-12 — at least for now — its prospects are the bleakest of the four remaining leagues. Its two biggest brands, Florida State and Clemson, have made their intentions to jump ship very clear. It’s hard to imagine the conference surviving another round of television contract negotiations, at least in its current form.
But if you ignore the league’s uncertain long-term future, it kind of feels like business as usual for the ACC in 2024, aside from two disappointing and confusing additions in Stanford and Cal, and a potentially interesting one in SMU.
FSU and the Tigers, who have combined for 12 of the last 13 ACC titles, again appear to be the obvious contenders despite some offseason production dips. Miami appears to have the roster needed to break through in year three under Mario Cristobal, but beyond that there is little clarity.
Nevertheless, there will inevitably be someone in this league who will surprise us – the only question is who.
Will it be a Virginia Tech team that finished 7-6 with a solid sophomore year for Brent Pry and found a potential star at quarterback in Kyren Drones? How about a quietly consistent NC State team that brings back a receiver who shined as a true freshman in Kevin Concepcion and adds a veteran and potentially fun transfer quarterback in Grayson McCall?
Only time will tell if the Mustangs can compete in a power conference, but they will get some back from an 11-win team in 2023. Louisville, last season’s runner-up, had one of the best defenses in the country last fall and bolstered its quarterback position with veteran Tyler Shough, who has struggled with injuries in his career but impressed when healthy.
Right now, it doesn’t look like anyone in this conference is a clear contender for the national title, and that could result in one of these teams becoming the underdog.
Big 12: Can the league avoid self-cannibalization?
October 15, 2022; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Utes quarterback Cameron Rising (7) drops back to pass against the USC Trojans during the second quarter at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Photo Credit: Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports ORG XMIT: IMAGN-491134 ORIG FILE ID: 20221015_jhp_gb6_0088.JPG
As bad as it looked when the Longhorns and Sooners moved to the SEC, the Big 12 actually came out relatively well, at least compared to its counterparts outside the SEC and Big Ten.
This conference is (mostly) geographically coherent and arguably the most expansive in the country with a strong middle class in 2024. Five teams are ranked in the preseason AP Top 25, but only one – Utah – is ranked in the top 15.
That’s the (potential) problem with this league. There are at least five teams that could, with good reason, win the Big 12 this season. But it seems quite possible that these quality teams will cannibalize each other in an extremely strong league. And that’s not good news considering the College Football Playoff format is already stacked in favor of the two more influential leagues.
If anyone wants to win this division convincingly, Utah seems like a safe bet. Although the offense has been plagued by injuries all year, the team still has eight wins in 2023 and should rebound nicely with quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe finally healthy again.
Arizona, also a newcomer, had to endure a last-minute coaching change and the loss of players, but managed to retain some of its key players. Oklahoma State and Kansas State appear to be the best-positioned teams, and even Kansas or Iowa State seem to be just a few breaks away from breaking into this league.
You know what I mean. These are all good teams, but if they all lose three or more, it will be hard to get a place in the standings.
Big Ten: What happens to the have-nots?
The Boilermaker Special takes the Purdue Boilermakers onto the field before their NCAA football game on Saturday, September 10, 2022, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Indiana.
Purdue vs Indiana State
Having surpassed the SEC in its last television deal, it is now the richest conference in the country. It is also the largest and most geographically spread conference, with 18 teams represented from coast to coast.
And while the expansion of the league’s strength and reach is undoubtedly a boon for programs like Ohio State and Oregon, which sit at the top of this Frankenstein monster conference, that doesn’t mean everyone in the Big Ten benefits equally.
Not only did four teams join the conference overnight, but they also added teams that are all likely to finish in or near the top half more often. For teams that have been bottom of the league so far – Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Rutgers and the like – that likely means they’ll fall even lower, and the already narrow path to contention is almost at an end.
While the elimination of divisions is certainly welcome news for the Hoosiers and Scarlet Knights, who will now avoid annual games against the Buckeyes, Wolverines and Nittany Lions, the same cannot be said for a team like the Boilermakers, who at least previously had a feasible path to Indianapolis via the comparatively weak Big Ten West. Now, not so much.
The Big Ten’s lower-tier teams would certainly rather be here than anywhere else, but that doesn’t mean these changes will benefit them just because they’re part of the club.
SEC: How big is the power vacuum that Nick Saban leaves behind?
SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA – FEBRUARY 07: Former college football head coach Nick Saban plays a tee shot on the 10th hole during the Pro-Am for the Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale on February 7, 2024 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
As if there weren’t enough changes already in a league that’s adding two of the country’s biggest brands and doing away with a division structure that’s remained largely unchanged since 1992, Nick Saban retired in January.
The legendary Alabama coach is rightly considered the greatest college coach of all time, and he somehow managed to keep the SEC in a stranglehold for over a decade during its prime as a league.
Who could take his place now that he’s gone? Kirby Smart, Saban’s protégé, and Georgia are the obvious answer. The ‘Dawgs won two straight titles in 2021 and 2022 and likely would have won a third last fall had they not lost to the Crimson Tide and Saban in his final SEC championship game.
But it’s boring to assume that Georgia will take over Alabama’s role in this conference for the next 15 years, and it’s perhaps an unsafe assumption. Texas seems ready to take off, and in terms of recruiting and resources, the Longhorns can compete with anyone in the SEC and the country.
And while Kalen DeBoer finds himself in the unenviable position of being named Saban’s successor, there’s no reason to believe the Tide are destined to see a decline in performance, as they have continued to recruit players at the highest level under the new team.
This season alone, the SEC has nine ranked teams entering the year. Seven of them are in the top 15 and four are in the top 10. It’s not just possible that this league will get five teams in the CFP, it’s likely.
Nick Saban has had an indescribable impact on this league. Four of the current head coaches are former Saban assistants, and even more have been fired over the years. All of these coaches were hired in the hopes of replicating the Alabama formula elsewhere.
So far, no one has been as successful as him. But without his shadow casting over the entire league, will there be parity? Or will the next dynasty prevail after his departure in 2024?
